Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Cup O' Joe - Semifinal Previews, Other Bowl Predictions

Here are some news and notes out of our semifinal games, along with some other bowls:

USC at Minnesota: In the Trojans' rout of Louisville, the biggest piece of encouragement was the emergence of junior running back Dallas Hickey. He had rushed for over six yards a carry this season, but never had more than 11 carries in a game. Nobody was quite sure how he'd hold up to being the lead back for an entire 60 minutes. After his 28 carry, 126 yard performance against Louisville, doubts were eased. "I knew I could do it," said Hickey. "I have had fresh legs all year. A lot of these linebackers, defensive tackles, they've been going all year. I've been kept fresh. I like my chances against them." Head Coach Vai Laird backed up that theory. "Every time we put him in to spell Jasen (Spurrier), it was like the game was at a different pace. He's a much bigger back than Jasen, and he's able to bowl over these tired defenders." That much is true. Hickey is 6'1, 227 pounds; Spurrier, at 5'11, 195, is more a shifty back. Hickey will run into the lines, and push them forward. It gives USC a different dimension on offense, which may give the Minnesota front line fits.

One area of Minnesota's offense that poses a problem for USC is the emergence of a pass-happy offense. The Trojan secondary is a weak spot of the team, and it certainly does not bode well that Art Webb torched the Texas A&M defense for 407 yards and five touchdowns. Junior wideout Gil Hynoski had a career game, catching five balls for 178 yards and a pair of touchdowns. His second catch, an 85-yard streak, gave Minnesota its first lead. Texas A&M, which led 21-7 at the end of one quarter, was stunned, and never became a factor in the fourth quarter. "Of course, that's when we shine." said star linebacker Harry Diamond. The Aggies scored only one first down in the quarter, and Marion Songin rushed four times for -6 yards in the final fifteen minutes. With Art Webb using his passing game as ball control, the Gophers suddenly have a weapon to cope with the loss of June Grant. Po Olander has been spotty at best, though he did rush for 72 yards on 18 carries against the Aggies defense. "Po was mo' effective," said Olander.

"No mo' problems with Po."

Georgia vs Florida State: Many people thought this would be the National Championship Game. Alas, a late season loss to Florida cost the Seminoles their perfect record, #1 ranking, and a spot opposite the bracket of the Bulldogs. Instead, they get the SEC champs now, in the semifinals. And they're doing it with renewed focus.

"We were on cruise control until the Florida game," said FSU head coach Dom Curtin. "We got through the Clemson game, and a lot of our players thought we were out of the clear. Then comes Florida, and bam...we have to work a lot harder just to get to this spot.

"Now...we're ready for anything."

The 'Noles do have Heisman Trophy winner Ronde Samuels clicking on all cylinders. In their 30-29 win over Florida, Samuels was 20-of-28 for 387 yards, 2 TD, and an INT. The downfall of this was that Florida controlled the clock, holding it for 36 minutes. But it was FSU who moved on to face the Bulldogs, using quick-hitters...including the 52-yard bomb down the seams, from Samuels to Hewritt McCutcheon, that broke Florida's back.

"He just put it right there," said McCutcheon, who caught the ball in between two Florida defenders, in what may be the pass of the year. "I thought it was picked, and I was getting picked again...and then, there it was."

"That was a heck of a throw," said Curtin.

Now, Samuels, running back Wes Baniewicz, and their talented defense...are headed to what many people think is the real championship game.

Meanwhile, in Georgia, the #1 Bulldogs don't mind not having the spotlight.

"Let it stay in Tallahassee," said QB Isaac Allen, of the media circus that has developed on FSU's campus. "We're working hard here. We don't mind having the focus on the game, rather than giving soundbites."

Georgia has been overshadowed nearly all year. Florida was the team early in the year, before the focus shifted to Ohio State. Then Michigan. Then Minnesota and Penn State. Then Clemson, Florida State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma.

In the meantime, Georgia has continued to win. And win. And win.

And now, the nation's only undefeated team is ready to show the nation just what they've been missing.

"Does the lack of recognition provide a chip on our shoulder?" asked coach Ulyssess Draft. "It does if we want it to. I'm not concerned that we've been overlooked all year. We're the top team in the nation, according to the polls. Obviously, someone has noticed us.

"But that's still doesn't matter. What matters is what we do on the field. I don't care if a piece of paper tells us we're #1. When we have a championship trophy that tells us that, well...that's a little more credible."

Georgia has a balanced attack, led by Allen and RB Jared Bingaman, who finished as a Heisman finalist after rushing for 2,018 yards and 16 touchdowns. Bingaman, like the rest of the Bulldogs, went through his year in someone else's shadow. In this case, it was Marion Songin, who finished second in the Heisman race after leading the nation in rushing.

"He's a great back. Incredible," said Bingaman. "He deserves the recognition. But we're still alive, playing for a chance in the title game. That's what matters to me."

Bingaman, like his teammates, have just one focus: Winning the title.

"We've overcome every test, hurdled every obstacle," said Allen. "We've faced every challenge and succeeded. We expect to do it. It's just the way things are."

Erik Hargett *did* get noticed. He won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver. But even he has a simple, aw-shucks way of dealing with the hype.

"I just went out and did my job," he said of winning the award. "It's just a game. I love to play, and I love to win. That someone thought I did a good job, and decided to give me something for it...well, that's nice of them."

Where DID this team come from, exactly?

"They just love to play the game," said Draft. "It's amazing to be able to coach this group of young men.

"Now, if we can win this game, I'll get to coach them for one more game."

Predictions:

Last week: 3-1
Overall: 10-2

Minnesota vs Southern Cal: Minnesota got through Texas A&M and Marion Songin. USC's offense looks a lot simpler than A&M's, and the confidence gained in holding the nation's leading back when it counted--he actually lost six yards in the fourth quarter--may serve the Gophers well in this one. USC has had the emergence of Dallas Hickey, a bowling ball of sorts. But it'll be Jarmar McCloughan who makes the difference for Southern Cal. If he can be efficient, USC will have a wonderful shot. But if Minnesota's defense bears down on him, and forces decisions before he wants to make them, well...it will be a long day. And I think Minnesota will inevitably force the latter. Expect the Golden Gophers to control the line of scrimmage against the Trojans' offensive line, and expect Harry Diamond, Dorsett Gibron, and Bob Lavelli to get multiple shots at McCloughan. That, along with Art Webb's resurging passing attack, will be the difference. Minnesota, easily the best team in the Big Ten this year, gets to the National Championship game in a runaway.

Pick: Minnesota 30, USC 17

Georgia vs Florida State: And now, the real national championship game. Everyone wanted to see this matchup; just not in the semifinals. Well, that doesn't matter. We got it, and that's what really matters. This should be a slugfest. Georgia has the nation's best offense; FSU is next in line. Georgia has the nation's fourth-best defense; FSU is 26th, but vastly underrated. FSU has Ronde Samuels, the Heisman Trophy winner, Wes Baniewicz, and a pair of receivers that can do serious damage. Georgia has Isaac Allen, Jared Bingaman, and the nation's best wideout. Both have sluggers on defense. So...who wins? Expect this to go back and forth. It may come down to who has it last. In the end, I think Georgia has a little more, especially on the defensive end, to take this one. The Bulldogs have as many weapons as FSU, and while they don't have the best weapon (that is Samuels), they have enough complex schemes to confuse the 'Noles. As a result, I think Georgia moves on.

Pick: Georgia 35, FSU 34

Other bowl predictions:

Michigan 27, Tennessee 20 - Michigan is out to prove that they deserved an at-large bid. They should win this one going away behind Rae Hendrickson.

Texas 34, Alabama 16 - Kelvin Torgeson is the best player Alabama's seen all year. After one half, they'll have seen enough.

Penn State 31, LSU 30 - Penn State gets Sean Robertson back. That gives them one more weapon than the Tigers can handle. This should be one heck of a game.

Notre Dame 26, Georgia Tech 14 - The young Irish encounter a team that's as much an enigma as they were. I think Ty Sellers is enough to lead ND in this one.

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