Saturday, May 20, 2006

Next Lesson - Week 2, 2006

Next Lesson: Preview, Week 2, 2006
by Joe Simpson

Several marquee games are on the schedule for this week, including one with major national implications. Let's take a look at the Week-To-Be:

Game of the Week: #2 Ohio State (1-0) at #3 Texas (1-0). The big question here is, which team breaks out? Both went through pedestrian performances against mediocre competition last week. Is it that both teams were looking ahead? That may very well be the case. Torrin McClairen showed he can live up to the hype he was given when he was placed in the Heisman Top Ten in the preseason. But can he score? He's going to need an even bigger performance than his 28-carry, 157-yard outing against UConn, if Texas is going to be successful in this game. Mack Gambrell was also impressive, throwing for 310 yards and a pair of TDs on 64.3% passing. He can do it against this defense, too; Ohio State's secondary is talented, but it is their weakness on this defense. Austin Leaverton is going to have to have a Butkus-like day against McClairen and this offensive line, if Ohio State is going to be able to do the things they want to do. Leaverton will be on McClairen coming out of the backfield in passing situations, and that may be the biggest matchup of the game.

Of course, the big question is...can Ohio State perform offensively? They managed six field goals against Akron. That...does not equate to solid offensive production. While we understand that they lost their entire backfield, including first-round pick JC Neumann and second-round pick Elmer Tennell, the leap from Akron to Texas is pretty darn big. Can Ohio State make that adjustment this year? Can Clenton Hamlin (21-for-28, 222, TD) and JC Motley (36 carries, 175 yards, 0 TD) find their way into the end zone against this rugged Longhorn defense? (More on that below.) That is going to be the key in this game...whichever team realizes they have a high-powered offense, and then uses it, is going to win. That may sound obvious, and to be honest, it is. But these teams are too good to have the games they had in the first week. And whichever one doesn't snap out of their early funk is going to be the one that comes out of here with the L.

Joe Simpson's Prediction: This is going to be a real dogfight. There's no question about that. In the end, I think it's going to be Ohio State's balance on offense that gets the best of Texas. Texas' defense is suspect at times, and their secondary is very spotty. I think Hamlin, Motley, and WR Andre Morey snap out of it, and start moving the ball on Texas in the second half. Texas needs balance if they're going to win, and turning this into a track meet, which I think the Buckeyes will do come the third quarter, is going to be the death knell for the Longhorns. Ohio State escapes with the victory, and validation that they are, right now, the best team in America.

Pick: Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Other Top Games:

#15 Auburn (0-1) at #16 Clemson (1-0): Auburn was much better against Michigan last week than many give them credit for. In spite of the 114th-ranked defense in the nation, Auburn held their own against the Wolverines until Michigan put the game away late. But Clemson is much better than people think. Auburn can't go 0-2, but traveling to Death Valley may be too much for the Tigers to handle. I think Clemson squeaks by behind Art Bedsole. PICK: Clemson 27, Auburn 23

#24 Nebraska (1-0) at #22 Iowa (0-1): Cliff Holleyman being banged up really hurts Iowa here. He has a cracked rib, and while the senior intends to play, one has to wonder how many hits he can take. He was sacked twice in the loss to Washington, and now here comes a Cornhusker defense that is leaps and bounds better than the Huskies. Add QB Dantonio Karras rearing to have a breakout game, and you have a team that's ready to roll over the Hawkeyes. PICK: Nebraska 34, Iowa 17

#14 Wisconsin (1-0) at #25 Tennessee (1-0): While the Vols are ranked, I'm still not sold on them. Melvin Landry is the real deal, of course. But DeJuan Franks...I'm not completely set on him as being the guy to lead this team. Of course, they don't have much of a choice. But Franks has been a bit of a bust for the Volunteers, a guy who has not completely fulfilled his potential in Knoxville. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is on the way up. Deveren Liske is every bit as good as Landry, and Shurron Millen is one of the best QBs nobody has heard of. But they are banged up...3/5 of their line may not start this week. So, it's a toss-up. I don't think UT has enough to beat Wisconsin on defense, even with the line for the Badgers hurting so much. Deveren Liske will earn the win for Wisconsin. PICK: Wisconsin 23, Tennessee 20

#19 Missouri (0-0) at #11 LSU (0-1): It's do-or-die time for LSU. Simple as that. Missouri is not as good as last year's surprise Big XII champs. But they are still quite good, and quite capable of coming to Baton Rouge and beating the Tigers. Claudis Browning is one of the best junior QBs in the nation, and he has two very good targets in Kiwaukee Ellis and Rufus Diehl, as well as a tough running back in Kline Jarvis. You would think that LSU has the edge over Mizzou, in that they've played a game. But who knows what's going on in that locker room, following the loss to Oregon. I guess we'll find out what this team is made of, and where this program is headed, following this game. PICK: LSU 28, Missouri 27

Other Games (HOME TEAM IN CAPS, Media rankings used)

#1 Michigan 44, SAN DIEGO STATE 10
#4 FLORIDA STATE 51, Tulsa 20
#7 PURDUE 38, Arizona 14
#8 OKLAHOMA 41, Mississippi State 24
#9 USC 45, Hawaii 28
#10 MIAMI 27, Utah 10
#12 PENN STATE 38, North Carolina State 21
#13 TEXAS TECH 56, Rice 13
#17 Notre Dame 34, RUTGERS 7
#18 MINNESOTA 24, West Virginia 20
#20 BOSTON COLLEGE 30, Louisiana Tech 16
IOWA STATE 27, #21 Washington 24

Top 25 Open: #5 Florida, #6 Georgia, #23 Colorado

Questions we hope to answer this week:

Is Ohio State the best team in the nation?
Is Penn State's offense as good as the hype?
Is Miami back?
Is Clemson have a place among the elite in college football?

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