Cup O' Joe - National Title Game Prediction
And so, here we are.
The National Championship Game.
The game pits the Georgia Bulldogs (15-0, SEC Champs), who were a preseason possibility to get this far...
...against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-1, #2 Big Ten), who were predicted to make waves in the Big Ten, but not on the national scene (this writer had them listed as the fourth place team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State and Purdue).
For the record, my national championship game was Ohio State vs. Florida State. Shows how smart I am.
All signs point to a Georgia runaway victory. They have all their weapons, healthy and running on all cylinders. They have a defense very capable of giving Minnesota fits all day. And their coaching staff is second to none.
But...that's why they play the game.
Let's break it down, shall we?
Minnesota offense vs Georgia defense: Minnesota is still without starting halfback June Grant. But they have been without him for awhile, so you would think that Po Olander would have a firm grip on the running game. He only rushed for 72 yards last week against an overmatched USC defense that has been ravaged with injuries. Therefore, the onus falls solely on the shoulders, and the arm, of Art Webb. And that's no easy task. Eight different Bulldogs intercepted passes this year, led by undersized but feisty corner Gerry Vinatieri. The cousin of kicker Adam Vinatieri, Gerry stands but just 5'9. But he is a lockdown corner, not afraid of getting dirty, and can hit. He had four INT, one for a TD, and led the team in passes defensed. The team also possesses a linebacker, Luke LoVetere, who has the capabilities of a corner. Webb has not faced a defense like this this season, and the complex schemes of Defensive Coordinator Pierson Trufant may give him more than he can handle. But Webb is sneaky, and Minnesota gave USC some looks they didn't see on film. It is possible that they will have something up their sleeve for Georgia. But, as it is, Georgia gets the nod.
Advantage: GEORGIA
Georgia offense vs. Minnesota defense: Minnesota's defense is well known. Harry Diamond. Brooks Lavelli. Wes Coia. Dorsett Gibron. While the media has stopped short of calling them The Four Horsemen, this quartet has wreaked havoc on opposing offenses all year. The question is, can they do it against Georgia? To be honest, I'm not sure they can. Looking at the offenses Minnesota faced, they played only one offense that's in the same realm as Georgia's multi-faceted attack, that being Penn State. Penn State's offense was ranked in the top five at the time, but was playing without starting wideout Sean Robertson. But that didn't stop the Nits from rolling up 445 yards and 28 first downs on the Gophers' vaunted defense. Minnesota won that game because Penn State could not stop big plays from Art Webb, as they were also without their starting corner, Kimo Tice. The Gophers did hold Sage Stith to 251 yards, but they gave up almost 200 yards rushing. Enter Jared Bingaman, the likely #1 pick in the NFL Draft in April. Bingaman is the most complete back in the nation, and he has a solid aerial passing attack behind him. So Minnesota will be forced to pick their poison. Do they lay back on the pass and let Bingaman run all over them? Or do they try and shut Bingaman down, and let Isaac Allen throw bombs to Erik Hargett and Wilber Womack (third-team All-SEC)? I'm not sure Minnesota has the secondary that can stop Allen's pinpoint passing attack. So they may have to roll the dice and see if the front four can stop Bingaman on their own. That is quite possibly too tall an order for this Gopher defensive front that has shown bouts of fatigue over the past three weeks. I don't think Georgia will be able to name their gain...but I don't think Minnesota will be able to consistently stop them.
Advantage: GEORGIA
Special Teams: Both teams are solid in their abilities here. Gern Claxton and Woody Cronin are as solid a specialist as you'll ever get for Georgia. Though, you do have to be concerned with Claxton's extra points percentage. Missing four of them isn't something you want out of your kicker. Cronin has learned, as the season has gone on, how to pin the ball deep. He was getting a lot of touchbacks early on, but has converted many of those to pins inside the 20. Vinatieri averaged 27.2 yards a kickoff return, which ranked 11th in the nation. Minnesota has relied on a true freshman, a 17-year-old in Hub Klever. Scouts rank him as being a 1 out of a possible 7 on a scale of 1-10 (with the 7 being his potential as a college kicker). But he has been solid in the eight games he's been in, going 16-of-21 on field goals, never missing a field goal, and having booming kickoffs. MC Scukanec is more a placement punter, but he averaged 41.2 yards a punt this year. His 35.3 NET is no slouch, either. Wes Coia was reputable on returns, averaging 23.6 on kickoffs and over 10 on punts. I think this area is a push, though having a freshman kicker is not really good for Minnesota, especially if it comes down to a late field goal. He was 4-of-7 on field goals 40 yards or more. So, I'll give the edge to Georgia. But it's a slight edge.
Advantage: GEORGIA (slight)
X-Factors:
Georgia: Peppi Bynum, WR. The redshirt sophomore tends to get lost in this offense. He's a starter, but Wilber Womack, the slot wideout, gets thrown to more. Womack earned All-SEC Third Team honors, which is unbelievable for a guy who does not start. If Bynum can get on track, and force the Gopher defense to pay attention to him, I think this game is over early. You can't give Isaac Allen three superb targets to throw to, and expect Minnesota to be able to shut down Jared Bingaman. I think it's imperative for Georgia to get their other wideouts active early, to keep the Gophers from shading Erik Hargett or stacking the line on Bingaman. Bynum is very capable of having solid numbers. He had over 100 receiving yards in five games this year, including seven catches for 138 yards against Florida.
Minnesota: Po Olander, RB. He's their key. If Minnesota can get solid gains out of him, it's going to prevent Georgia from going after Art Webb, or sitting back in coverage. Olander has had bouts of inconsistency as the starting back, but he is more than able to have a stellar game.
Keys to Victory:
Georgia
1. Use all of your weapons offensively. Minnesota has a great team defense, but Georgia has better personnel. In short, Georgia is an awful matchup for the Gophers' defense, if they use all of the weapons they have. There's no way Minnesota can beat this team if they're forced to stay in nickel defense for most of the game.
2. Go right after Art Webb. You have to rattle him early. He can't get confidence; if he does, he will hurt the Georgia defense. This was evident in the USC game, as well the Texas A&M game, where he threw for over 400 yards and 5 TD in what should have been an Aggie rout. Get after him, and don't let up.
3. Don't get overconfident. I don't expect this to be an issue with this Georgia team. They have an unbelievable focus, and an incredible team-first makeup. But they are the team that was expected to be here. They've had it put in their heads all week: they are favored, and Minnesota shouldn't be able to stay within three touchdowns of them. Georgia is by far the more talented team. But if they believe the hype, it may be their undoing.
Minnesota
1. Protect Art Webb. He's your key to victory. Olander gaining yards is key, but Webb's arm is going to dictate where this team goes in this game. So you have to protect him. Minnesota can run a lot of screens to offset the Georgia rush. If they're successful, it's going to take heat off of Webb. A lot of draws should also help. Webb is not a running QB, meaning he's going to be a sitting duck back there if he's forced to wait.
2. Make Georgia one-dimensional. Ideally, you want to take away the rushing attack, because Georgia can play ball control with Bingaman if Minnesota tries to shut down the passing game. Minnesota will have to time their rushes right, but shutting down Bingaman, and forcing Allen to beat them is very important. If they are able to hold Bingaman down, they can then go after Allen with their rushing attack, which is the best in the nation.
3. Don't panic. The Gophers are notorious slow starters. They have never rushed out of the gate and run off a ton of points. In half of their games, they did not score first. If they get behind early, they must remember that the game is sixty minutes long, and not to force the issue. If Minnesota becomes one-dimensional because they want to make this a track meet, it's over. There's no way they can get into a points battle with the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Of course, the game will be played on the field, and not on paper. And Minnesota is very, very capable of pulling off this win. But I don't see it happening. I think the matchups, the individual matchups, are very one-sided. Georgia has more weapons than the Gophers can handle, and there's not enough depth in the running attack to keep Georgia from disregarding it. I think Minnesota will keep it close on pure moxie by Art Webb. He's remarkably crafty, tough, and won't go down without a fight. But, in the end, Georgia's on my mind.
Too much Bingaman, too much Allen, too much Hargett. Georgia takes it.
Pick: Georgia 37, Minnesota 27
Player of the Game: Isaac Allen, Georgia QB
The National Championship Game.
The game pits the Georgia Bulldogs (15-0, SEC Champs), who were a preseason possibility to get this far...
...against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (13-1, #2 Big Ten), who were predicted to make waves in the Big Ten, but not on the national scene (this writer had them listed as the fourth place team in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State and Purdue).
For the record, my national championship game was Ohio State vs. Florida State. Shows how smart I am.
All signs point to a Georgia runaway victory. They have all their weapons, healthy and running on all cylinders. They have a defense very capable of giving Minnesota fits all day. And their coaching staff is second to none.
But...that's why they play the game.
Let's break it down, shall we?
Minnesota offense vs Georgia defense: Minnesota is still without starting halfback June Grant. But they have been without him for awhile, so you would think that Po Olander would have a firm grip on the running game. He only rushed for 72 yards last week against an overmatched USC defense that has been ravaged with injuries. Therefore, the onus falls solely on the shoulders, and the arm, of Art Webb. And that's no easy task. Eight different Bulldogs intercepted passes this year, led by undersized but feisty corner Gerry Vinatieri. The cousin of kicker Adam Vinatieri, Gerry stands but just 5'9. But he is a lockdown corner, not afraid of getting dirty, and can hit. He had four INT, one for a TD, and led the team in passes defensed. The team also possesses a linebacker, Luke LoVetere, who has the capabilities of a corner. Webb has not faced a defense like this this season, and the complex schemes of Defensive Coordinator Pierson Trufant may give him more than he can handle. But Webb is sneaky, and Minnesota gave USC some looks they didn't see on film. It is possible that they will have something up their sleeve for Georgia. But, as it is, Georgia gets the nod.
Advantage: GEORGIA
Georgia offense vs. Minnesota defense: Minnesota's defense is well known. Harry Diamond. Brooks Lavelli. Wes Coia. Dorsett Gibron. While the media has stopped short of calling them The Four Horsemen, this quartet has wreaked havoc on opposing offenses all year. The question is, can they do it against Georgia? To be honest, I'm not sure they can. Looking at the offenses Minnesota faced, they played only one offense that's in the same realm as Georgia's multi-faceted attack, that being Penn State. Penn State's offense was ranked in the top five at the time, but was playing without starting wideout Sean Robertson. But that didn't stop the Nits from rolling up 445 yards and 28 first downs on the Gophers' vaunted defense. Minnesota won that game because Penn State could not stop big plays from Art Webb, as they were also without their starting corner, Kimo Tice. The Gophers did hold Sage Stith to 251 yards, but they gave up almost 200 yards rushing. Enter Jared Bingaman, the likely #1 pick in the NFL Draft in April. Bingaman is the most complete back in the nation, and he has a solid aerial passing attack behind him. So Minnesota will be forced to pick their poison. Do they lay back on the pass and let Bingaman run all over them? Or do they try and shut Bingaman down, and let Isaac Allen throw bombs to Erik Hargett and Wilber Womack (third-team All-SEC)? I'm not sure Minnesota has the secondary that can stop Allen's pinpoint passing attack. So they may have to roll the dice and see if the front four can stop Bingaman on their own. That is quite possibly too tall an order for this Gopher defensive front that has shown bouts of fatigue over the past three weeks. I don't think Georgia will be able to name their gain...but I don't think Minnesota will be able to consistently stop them.
Advantage: GEORGIA
Special Teams: Both teams are solid in their abilities here. Gern Claxton and Woody Cronin are as solid a specialist as you'll ever get for Georgia. Though, you do have to be concerned with Claxton's extra points percentage. Missing four of them isn't something you want out of your kicker. Cronin has learned, as the season has gone on, how to pin the ball deep. He was getting a lot of touchbacks early on, but has converted many of those to pins inside the 20. Vinatieri averaged 27.2 yards a kickoff return, which ranked 11th in the nation. Minnesota has relied on a true freshman, a 17-year-old in Hub Klever. Scouts rank him as being a 1 out of a possible 7 on a scale of 1-10 (with the 7 being his potential as a college kicker). But he has been solid in the eight games he's been in, going 16-of-21 on field goals, never missing a field goal, and having booming kickoffs. MC Scukanec is more a placement punter, but he averaged 41.2 yards a punt this year. His 35.3 NET is no slouch, either. Wes Coia was reputable on returns, averaging 23.6 on kickoffs and over 10 on punts. I think this area is a push, though having a freshman kicker is not really good for Minnesota, especially if it comes down to a late field goal. He was 4-of-7 on field goals 40 yards or more. So, I'll give the edge to Georgia. But it's a slight edge.
Advantage: GEORGIA (slight)
X-Factors:
Georgia: Peppi Bynum, WR. The redshirt sophomore tends to get lost in this offense. He's a starter, but Wilber Womack, the slot wideout, gets thrown to more. Womack earned All-SEC Third Team honors, which is unbelievable for a guy who does not start. If Bynum can get on track, and force the Gopher defense to pay attention to him, I think this game is over early. You can't give Isaac Allen three superb targets to throw to, and expect Minnesota to be able to shut down Jared Bingaman. I think it's imperative for Georgia to get their other wideouts active early, to keep the Gophers from shading Erik Hargett or stacking the line on Bingaman. Bynum is very capable of having solid numbers. He had over 100 receiving yards in five games this year, including seven catches for 138 yards against Florida.
Minnesota: Po Olander, RB. He's their key. If Minnesota can get solid gains out of him, it's going to prevent Georgia from going after Art Webb, or sitting back in coverage. Olander has had bouts of inconsistency as the starting back, but he is more than able to have a stellar game.
Keys to Victory:
Georgia
1. Use all of your weapons offensively. Minnesota has a great team defense, but Georgia has better personnel. In short, Georgia is an awful matchup for the Gophers' defense, if they use all of the weapons they have. There's no way Minnesota can beat this team if they're forced to stay in nickel defense for most of the game.
2. Go right after Art Webb. You have to rattle him early. He can't get confidence; if he does, he will hurt the Georgia defense. This was evident in the USC game, as well the Texas A&M game, where he threw for over 400 yards and 5 TD in what should have been an Aggie rout. Get after him, and don't let up.
3. Don't get overconfident. I don't expect this to be an issue with this Georgia team. They have an unbelievable focus, and an incredible team-first makeup. But they are the team that was expected to be here. They've had it put in their heads all week: they are favored, and Minnesota shouldn't be able to stay within three touchdowns of them. Georgia is by far the more talented team. But if they believe the hype, it may be their undoing.
Minnesota
1. Protect Art Webb. He's your key to victory. Olander gaining yards is key, but Webb's arm is going to dictate where this team goes in this game. So you have to protect him. Minnesota can run a lot of screens to offset the Georgia rush. If they're successful, it's going to take heat off of Webb. A lot of draws should also help. Webb is not a running QB, meaning he's going to be a sitting duck back there if he's forced to wait.
2. Make Georgia one-dimensional. Ideally, you want to take away the rushing attack, because Georgia can play ball control with Bingaman if Minnesota tries to shut down the passing game. Minnesota will have to time their rushes right, but shutting down Bingaman, and forcing Allen to beat them is very important. If they are able to hold Bingaman down, they can then go after Allen with their rushing attack, which is the best in the nation.
3. Don't panic. The Gophers are notorious slow starters. They have never rushed out of the gate and run off a ton of points. In half of their games, they did not score first. If they get behind early, they must remember that the game is sixty minutes long, and not to force the issue. If Minnesota becomes one-dimensional because they want to make this a track meet, it's over. There's no way they can get into a points battle with the Bulldogs.
Prediction: Of course, the game will be played on the field, and not on paper. And Minnesota is very, very capable of pulling off this win. But I don't see it happening. I think the matchups, the individual matchups, are very one-sided. Georgia has more weapons than the Gophers can handle, and there's not enough depth in the running attack to keep Georgia from disregarding it. I think Minnesota will keep it close on pure moxie by Art Webb. He's remarkably crafty, tough, and won't go down without a fight. But, in the end, Georgia's on my mind.
Too much Bingaman, too much Allen, too much Hargett. Georgia takes it.
Pick: Georgia 37, Minnesota 27
Player of the Game: Isaac Allen, Georgia QB