Joe Simpson's NCAA Cup O' Joe

Saturday, May 20, 2006

Next Lesson - Week 2, 2006

Next Lesson: Preview, Week 2, 2006
by Joe Simpson

Several marquee games are on the schedule for this week, including one with major national implications. Let's take a look at the Week-To-Be:

Game of the Week: #2 Ohio State (1-0) at #3 Texas (1-0). The big question here is, which team breaks out? Both went through pedestrian performances against mediocre competition last week. Is it that both teams were looking ahead? That may very well be the case. Torrin McClairen showed he can live up to the hype he was given when he was placed in the Heisman Top Ten in the preseason. But can he score? He's going to need an even bigger performance than his 28-carry, 157-yard outing against UConn, if Texas is going to be successful in this game. Mack Gambrell was also impressive, throwing for 310 yards and a pair of TDs on 64.3% passing. He can do it against this defense, too; Ohio State's secondary is talented, but it is their weakness on this defense. Austin Leaverton is going to have to have a Butkus-like day against McClairen and this offensive line, if Ohio State is going to be able to do the things they want to do. Leaverton will be on McClairen coming out of the backfield in passing situations, and that may be the biggest matchup of the game.

Of course, the big question is...can Ohio State perform offensively? They managed six field goals against Akron. That...does not equate to solid offensive production. While we understand that they lost their entire backfield, including first-round pick JC Neumann and second-round pick Elmer Tennell, the leap from Akron to Texas is pretty darn big. Can Ohio State make that adjustment this year? Can Clenton Hamlin (21-for-28, 222, TD) and JC Motley (36 carries, 175 yards, 0 TD) find their way into the end zone against this rugged Longhorn defense? (More on that below.) That is going to be the key in this game...whichever team realizes they have a high-powered offense, and then uses it, is going to win. That may sound obvious, and to be honest, it is. But these teams are too good to have the games they had in the first week. And whichever one doesn't snap out of their early funk is going to be the one that comes out of here with the L.

Joe Simpson's Prediction: This is going to be a real dogfight. There's no question about that. In the end, I think it's going to be Ohio State's balance on offense that gets the best of Texas. Texas' defense is suspect at times, and their secondary is very spotty. I think Hamlin, Motley, and WR Andre Morey snap out of it, and start moving the ball on Texas in the second half. Texas needs balance if they're going to win, and turning this into a track meet, which I think the Buckeyes will do come the third quarter, is going to be the death knell for the Longhorns. Ohio State escapes with the victory, and validation that they are, right now, the best team in America.

Pick: Ohio State 31, Texas 24

Other Top Games:

#15 Auburn (0-1) at #16 Clemson (1-0): Auburn was much better against Michigan last week than many give them credit for. In spite of the 114th-ranked defense in the nation, Auburn held their own against the Wolverines until Michigan put the game away late. But Clemson is much better than people think. Auburn can't go 0-2, but traveling to Death Valley may be too much for the Tigers to handle. I think Clemson squeaks by behind Art Bedsole. PICK: Clemson 27, Auburn 23

#24 Nebraska (1-0) at #22 Iowa (0-1): Cliff Holleyman being banged up really hurts Iowa here. He has a cracked rib, and while the senior intends to play, one has to wonder how many hits he can take. He was sacked twice in the loss to Washington, and now here comes a Cornhusker defense that is leaps and bounds better than the Huskies. Add QB Dantonio Karras rearing to have a breakout game, and you have a team that's ready to roll over the Hawkeyes. PICK: Nebraska 34, Iowa 17

#14 Wisconsin (1-0) at #25 Tennessee (1-0): While the Vols are ranked, I'm still not sold on them. Melvin Landry is the real deal, of course. But DeJuan Franks...I'm not completely set on him as being the guy to lead this team. Of course, they don't have much of a choice. But Franks has been a bit of a bust for the Volunteers, a guy who has not completely fulfilled his potential in Knoxville. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is on the way up. Deveren Liske is every bit as good as Landry, and Shurron Millen is one of the best QBs nobody has heard of. But they are banged up...3/5 of their line may not start this week. So, it's a toss-up. I don't think UT has enough to beat Wisconsin on defense, even with the line for the Badgers hurting so much. Deveren Liske will earn the win for Wisconsin. PICK: Wisconsin 23, Tennessee 20

#19 Missouri (0-0) at #11 LSU (0-1): It's do-or-die time for LSU. Simple as that. Missouri is not as good as last year's surprise Big XII champs. But they are still quite good, and quite capable of coming to Baton Rouge and beating the Tigers. Claudis Browning is one of the best junior QBs in the nation, and he has two very good targets in Kiwaukee Ellis and Rufus Diehl, as well as a tough running back in Kline Jarvis. You would think that LSU has the edge over Mizzou, in that they've played a game. But who knows what's going on in that locker room, following the loss to Oregon. I guess we'll find out what this team is made of, and where this program is headed, following this game. PICK: LSU 28, Missouri 27

Other Games (HOME TEAM IN CAPS, Media rankings used)

#1 Michigan 44, SAN DIEGO STATE 10
#4 FLORIDA STATE 51, Tulsa 20
#7 PURDUE 38, Arizona 14
#8 OKLAHOMA 41, Mississippi State 24
#9 USC 45, Hawaii 28
#10 MIAMI 27, Utah 10
#12 PENN STATE 38, North Carolina State 21
#13 TEXAS TECH 56, Rice 13
#17 Notre Dame 34, RUTGERS 7
#18 MINNESOTA 24, West Virginia 20
#20 BOSTON COLLEGE 30, Louisiana Tech 16
IOWA STATE 27, #21 Washington 24

Top 25 Open: #5 Florida, #6 Georgia, #23 Colorado

Questions we hope to answer this week:

Is Ohio State the best team in the nation?
Is Penn State's offense as good as the hype?
Is Miami back?
Is Clemson have a place among the elite in college football?

Cup O' Joe - Week 1, 2006

Cup O' Joe
2006 Week 1 Recap
by Joe Simpson

We're one week into the new season, and already it's filled with surprise. The low-majors...Troy and Tulsa, namely...are already taking down some of the big guns of college football. Meanwhile, we have another Songin story, and lo and behold, it's not that far away from the first one. Let's take a look at the week that was:

Joe Simpson's Top Ten

1. Ohio State (1-0, 1 LW) - Buckeyes don't break sweat in tune-up for trip to Austin.
2. Georgia (1-0, 2) - Artrell Pierson (382 yards passing, 3 TD) showing he's the real deal.
3. Florida State (1-0, 3) - Defense looks superb, but three turnovers does not.
4. Michigan (1-0, 8) - Beware: Hendrickson rings up 140 yards, 80 on one carry.
5. Oklahoma (1-0, 6) - Sooners demolish UTEP, hold Ramon Shipp to 48 yards.
6. Penn State (0-0, 7) - Open up season vs NC State this week.
7. Texas (1-0, 9) - Longhorns insist their ready for Buckeyes this week.
8. Notre Dame (1-0, NR) - Surprisingly easy win over Trojans launches them into poll.
9. Auburn (0-1, 5) - They played Michigan tough, pulled to within 20-14 late in 4th.
10. USC (0-1, 4) - Spurrier getting injured (again) has to raise concern in Pasadena.

Rising stock: Notre Dame. They knocked off a USC team that has loads of talent, and they did it with ease. They do have Colorado, Purdue, and Michigan still on the schedule...but, when those coaches look at this tape, and see this kind of offensive attack...how will they gameplan for it? The Irish are back, ladies and gentlemen.

Stock falling: LSU. They were supposed to get back into the title picture. They were supposed to contend with Georgia, with Florida...and what happens? They lose to an Oregon team that isn't expected to do much of anything this year. And Oregon made it look easy. LSU managed just 70 yards rushing, and 242 yards total, while giving up 509 yards to the Ducks and QB Buck Allen. There are problems in Cajun Country, and they have to figure out the solution...fast.

Game Balls

Ty Sellers, RB, Notre Dame - 23 carries, 209 yards, 3 TD (1 receiving) vs USC. Sellers ran all over the Trojan defense, paving the way for freshman Bret Baniewicz to do the same (117 yards on 12 carries). If these two are going to do this all season (over nine yards a carry), nobody will stop them.

Hines Stingley, QB, Georgia Tech - 22-33, 416 yards, 6 TD, INT vs La Tech. Stingley isn't the answer at quarterback for the Yellow Jackets this year. But if he can play like this every week...heck, even 2/3 of this kind of productivity will be just fine for GT fans.

Dokie Gash, QB, Air Force - 28-36, 419 yards, 4 TD vs Army. Gash IS Air Force this year, and he proved his abilities in completing 77% of his passes against the Cadets. I normally don't give out two QB game balls, but he deserved it for this one.

Shayne Gabriel, RB, Texas Tech - 26 carries, 290 yards, 3 TD vs North Texas. Another case of duplicity, but Gabriel's efforts earned him a game ball. He rushed for 11.15 yards a carry against NoTx, which is impressive against ANY defense at this level.

Dameyune Tracey, WR, Miss State - 9 catches, 168 yards, TD vs Virginia. Solid effort against a team that, while is on its way down, can still hurt you.

Norris Barkum, ILB, San Jose State - 16 tackles (14 solo), 2 sacks, 3 stuffs vs VT. In spite of his team's inability to stop the Hokies (46-0), Barkum was superhuman, putting up great numbers against a very good team. He already matched his sack total of 2005 in this game.

Ode Biakabutuka, ILB, East Carolina - 17 tackles (12 solo), sack, stuff, hurry vs UGA. Ode is a guy who just overachieves. He has never been blessed with talent. But his motor is always going; he somehow managed nine sacks last season, and is already starting out of the gate this year, doing all he could to stop Georgia. The Bulldogs still scored 62 on the Pirates, but his efforts cannot be overlooked.

Madre Hyatt, ILB, Northern Illinois - 13 tackles, stuff, 3 INT vs Hawaii. Another amazing effort in a losing cause. Hyatt did everything he could to keep his team afloat. But no offense led to a 28-3 loss. Nevertheless, Hyatt registered double-digit tackles and three interceptions.

Alge Fitzgerland, PR, Kansas - 3 returns, 158 yards, 2 TD vs Syracuse. Fitzgerland put up the first two touchdowns of the game, on back-to-back returns. He took one 90 yards with 4:33 left in the first, and again on a 69-yard return with 3:04 left in the opening quarter. Once Syracuse stopped him from taking it to the house, they had very little issues in a 37-23 victory over the Jayhawks.

Akbar Lachey, K, Ohio State - 6-6 FG, Long 58, 19 points vs Akron. His teammates scored one touchdown. He did all the rest, including launching one from 58 yards. That will be in the back of OSU coaches later this season, guaranteed.

(There will be fewer game balls given out in the future. I swear.)

Lessons learned:

Notre Dame can run the ball: Ty Sellers and Bret Baniewicz are going to be a force this year. Sellers pushed for 209 yards, and Baniewicz for 117, against a tough USC defense. Baniewicz, the younger brother of former Florida State star Wes, will be asked to do a lot for the Irish this year. We learned, last week, that he can handle about 1/3 of the carries, and be very productive. Damian Bland was also utilized very well, throwing only sixteen times, but completing ten for 129 yards and a pair of touchdowns. If this is how Notre Dame is going to play, there may not be a team out there that can stop them from doing it.

USC still needs work: Yes, I still think USC is going to win it all. They got off to a very bad start last year, then got hot. It's very tough to open up against Notre Dame, especially when you're still young and putting together some new pieces on defense. But the Trojans only got to Bland for one sack, and only hurried him once. They did get into the backfield for five stuffs, but nobody was consistent with it. They never even came close to forcing a turnover. The defense was generally passive against the Irish, seemingly trying to implement a bend-but-don't-break scheme. It didn't work. For Stacy Bond and company it's now back to the drawing board.

LSU...Loser State?: No, not quite. But 32-20 to Oregon? Oregon never traied in this game. They controlled it throughout, putting up 509 yards of offense, and holding the Tigers to 242 total yards. Ahman Meade's replacement, senior Neill Kaesviharn, rushed for only 52 yards on 19 carries against the Ducks. That isn't going to fly, and everyone in Baton Rouge knows it. The defense is also severely broken, though they did get four sacks against Oregon's line. But they never truly stopped Oregon from scoring, even field goals. They're going to have to force more than four punts against teams if they want to be more successful. The jury is still out on whether or not they're going to be a national player. After this game, it's easy to say "No way". But I think they can still contend for the SEC title, and possibly more. However, it's going to take more from the offense to do it, especially with high-octane teams like Georgia and Florida looming on their schedule.

Oregon...a contender?: I think this was an aberration, to be honest. I don't think Oregon's receivers can keep making their quarterbacks looking this good. Buck Allen and Rueben Lawson can't sustain this kind of play every week. They just can't. And sophomore RJ Vanover has to be better than his 22 carry, 68 yard performance against the Tigers. The defense didn't force any turnovers, and while they did force five sacks, a lot of LSU's issues were just chemistry. As much as I was underwhelmed by LSU, I was not overwhelmed by Oregon's performance. This is a team that, by midseason, may only have one loss (that being to USC). Beating LSU in Baton Rouge is a major accomplishment, and nothing should be taken away from them for that. They will probably be 4-0 going into the game against Southern Cal (Virginia is a toss-up, but that's a team that's on the way down). The USC game will be the biggest game in this program's recent history...it's a statement game. Yes, I'm looking that far ahead and making that claim; the reason is, this team just knocked off a SEC power, and they don't have much of a challenge between now and that game. But if they come out and lay an egg against the Trojans, their recruiting may suffer far more than the gain they got from this win. If they beat the Trojans, they're suddenly the favorite to win the Pac-10, regardless of Cal, Washington State, and Oregon State. Do I think that'll happen? It's too early to say, especially with the two teams coming out of Week 1 with two very different results. But I don't think Oregon is as good as 32-20 over LSU indicates.

Invasion of the Mid-Majors: Troy is good. We knew that. But good enough to beat Oregon State? In Corvallis? Troy was completely outplayed, offensively. But their defense forced three turnovers. Oregon State missed two field goals. Oregon State also couldn't get anything going in the return game, being held to just 80 yards on all of their returns. Troy really made a statement in this game. They controlled throughout, and closed out the Beavers late. They will turn around and lose their next game (Texas)...but this team is good enough to get a win in the playoffs. I believe in the Trojans of Troy.

As far as Tulsa knocking off Colorado, I'm not sure what ot think of that. I think Colorado just couldn't find their way into the end zone against the Golden Hurricane. That's credit to Tulsa more than it is discredit to the Buffaloes, as their defense did a solid job. They got an interception, sacked Skeets Cannady three times, and threw enough different looks at him to force a 17-for-27 day out of him. They did give up 177 yards to Jumbo Gilmore, but they kept him from making a game-breaking play. On offense, Tulsa QB Wilson Galbraith was 22-of-32 for 286 and 3 TD (and an INT). He threw to six different targets, and two different receivers--Raynoch Pitts and Ahman Tinoisamoa--had over 100 yards. If Tulsa can keep spreading the wealth, we may be looking at a dark horse in CUSA.

Granted, these were the only two mid-majors to score wins over big programs this week. But don't expect this trend to curb, no no...this may be the year of the Mid-Major. There are a few of them that can contend deep into the playoffs; notably, Fresno State comes to mind. But this week showed that even the smaller ones can go into big-time places and come out with the win. This may be the year that the mids level the playing field.

This Year's Marion Songin is...: It's too early to determine that. Yes, Shayne Gabriel of Texas Tech rushed for 290 yards on 26 carries. And he had a great year last year, rushing for 1253 yards and 10 touchdowns. But his Week 1 effort was against North Texas. That's not exactly top competition. Ty Sellers' effort against USC was far more impressive. Five running backs rushed for over 200 yards last week, and all of them are elite backs. Angelo Pagliei is a truck for Arizona State at 5'11, 232 pounds; Florida's Winslow Ferrario is the best junior back in the nation...and the other two backs were Deveren Liske and Sellers. Still, it's too early to proclaim any of these backs this year's Songin.

Tuesday, May 16, 2006

2006 National Preview

As we enter the 2006 season, we emphasize the following point:

Change.

That is, the more teams change, the more they stay the same. Ohio State, the top team in our preseason rankings, lost their entire backfield. But they have weapons replacing them that will more than replace Elmer Tennell and JC Neumann. Georgia lost all of their weapons from their national title run a year ago. That includes #1 overall pick, RB Jared Binagman. But behind top recruit Artrell Pierson, the Bulldogs have a great chance to repeat. Florida State lost Heisman Trophy winner, QB Ronde Samuels. But, with Bracy Tolhurst replacing him, things are looking up for the Seminoles in the Sunshine State. These are just a few of the storylines heading into this season, which should be a most interesting one from start to finish.

Five Questions with Joe Simpson

1. Which conference will be the most hotly contested? The Big Ten. Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan are all neck and neck, I think, in terms of talent. Ohio State had to replace a lot of top players, but they did that...as well as bring back the best defensive player in the conference in linebacker Austin Leaverton. Penn State has the most explosive offense outside of Florida State, led by Heisman frontrunner, QB Sage Stith. The team got creative, converting Max Dixon to wide receiver and bringing in top RB prospect Raymont Neubert to lead the show. Their defense is one of the most underrated in the nation, led by Vinny Anderson and Ricky Taputu. Michigan has Rae Hendrickson, who in my view is good, but not quite on par with the top backs in the nation. They also have QB Marquand Groom, who should be better than last year's starter, Mick Zeno.

But they aren't the only ones who can win the Big Ten. Wisconsin, Purdue, and Minnesota all have great chances. Wisconsin had the a top-three recruiting class, and while they'll be young, Deverin Liske can lead them to the Promised Land. Purdue hopes to have QB Homer Piertosante for a full season; if they do, count on them to be in the thick of things for the entire trek. And Minnesota lost state hero Art Webb, but they return June Grant and a solid defense, one capable of shutting down any team on any day.

2. Can any team in the Big East contend for the national title? This conference got a bad rap last year, though Pittsburgh and Louisville demonstrated just how good they can be on a national level. This year, I think it's Syracuse's turn. The Orange are solid, have a star in QB IM Dressel, and are capable of beating anyone. Pittsburgh is also capable of playing some top notch football, but I don't think they have quite the defense needed to be a national title player.

3. Is USC going to walk away with the Pac 10? Yes. They are that good. They're still young, mind you...but nobody in the conference has the experience they have, on either side of the ball. Jamar McCloughan is a Heisman candidate at quarterback, and Lake Kotite is a Bednarik contender at DT, as is CB Jamel Prefontaine. They have the best special teams in the nation. I don't think anyone in the Pac 10 is capable of contending with Southern Cal. The best bets are Oregon State and Washington State. Oregon State needs Van Bunch to be LeRoy Keithley, and be him quickly...and the Cougars are too young, I think, to really contend with a team that's as good as USC. Cal has an outside chance, but I don't think they can get into a track meet with USC and win. I think that's what USC is capable of, and very few teams in the nation can run up and down the field with this outfit.

4. Will Josh Schaefer rebuild Notre Dame into a dynasty? The former Nebraska coach is off to a good start, with that recruiting class. If this is what Schaefer is able to bring to the table...bringing the nation's top recruiting class in with an already young team...he's got a great nucleus. Players like RB Brett Baniewicz, DE Rosey Gannon, and K Edward Orduna will make instant contributions to the Irish. If Schaefer and his staff can coach them up, and turn them into stars this year, he's going to turn Notre Dame into a dynasty. Mark my words. Kids are going to want to sign with Notre Dame early and often, for a chance to win national titles and do it with the best players in the nation. That's what Schaefer has started in South Bend, and I don't think it's going to stop anytime soon.

5. Who is this year's Minnesota? Who will ascend above anyone's expectations, and make it deep into the national title playoffs? I have ties to Central PA, so this may come off biased...but Penn State has all the weapons for a run deep into the playoffs. After that, I like Texas Tech. They have stars at QB and RB, and Shayne Gabriel is the kind of player who can go off like Marion Songin did a year ago. Miami is another team I really like. They have a solid defense, a star at QB in Yo Rizzo, and enough playmakers to win the ACC. Once they get into the playoffs, it's anyone's ballgame.

Bonus: Are there any mid-major teams that have the ability to get deep into the playoffs? Fresno State comes to mind, first and foremost. They are loaded with talent, have a very solid secondary, and can beat you throwing or running the ball. Colorado State is cut from the same ilk as the Bulldogs. They return Conference Player of the Year in Johnny McIlhenny, and the team has a two-headed monster at QB, with Jeno Saxon and junior backup Charley Ross. They have playmakers on D in LB Maugaula Martinez and Pat Davidson. I don't think anyone outside of these two has a real chance...but I *really* like these two teams. Their situations are ideal to make a lot of noise in the postseason, and I think they'll be quite loud when the time comes.

2006 Preseason Top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. USC
5. Auburn
6. Oklahoma
7. Penn State
8. Michigan
9. Texas
10. LSU
11. Florida
12. Syracuse
13. Clemson
14. Oregon State
15. Colorado
16. Boston College
17. Notre Dame
18. Pittsburgh
19. Wisconsin
20. Miami
21. Washington State
22. Colorado State
23. Fresno State
24. Maryland
25. Minnesota

2006 Preseason All-American Team

QB: Sage Stith, PSU
RB: Melvin Landry, Tennessee
FB: Sedrick Barton, Nebraska
WR: Kimo Setzer, Florida State
WR: Terrell Tolar, NC State
TE: London Standlee, Alabama
OT: KD Franklin, Florida
OT: Hason Hoard, Ohio State
OG: Omare English, Clemson
OG: Derwin Isenbarger, Oklahoma
C: Bhawoh Tillman, Minnesota (JR)

DE: Babe Broussard, North Carolina
DE: Brooks Lavelli, Minnesota (JR)
DT: Lake Kotite, Southern California (JR)
DT: Reuben Stransky, Colorado
ILB: Ruben Flemons, Kent State
ILB: Johndale McFarland, Virginia Tech
OLB: Cornelius Sayler, Nebraska
OLB: Glenn Voigt, Air Force
CB: Glenn Stanley, Notre Dame (JR)
CB: Jamel Prefontaine, Southern California
FS: LaVell Milan, NC State
SS: Philip Bly, Southern California

K: Wilber Trull, West Virginia
P: Clinton Burks, Kentucky

Top Ten Heisman Candidates

1. Sage Stith, QB, Penn State. He's the top returning quarterback in the nation. He has one of the top offenses in the nation at his disposal. If Max Dixon, who has moved to wide receiver this year, can make the transition (and stay eligible), there may not be a more potent offense. That, along with a down year for defenses in the Big Ten, and the fact that Penn State will be a national title contender, gives Stith the top billing here.

2. Melvin Landry, RB, Tennessee. Landry, the nation's top returning rusher from a year ago, will have perhaps a tougher time going for 2,000 yards. He'll be behind an All-American in tackle Dennis Wooten, yes. But the passing game, in spite of a pair of stud wideouts (Hubert Chandler and Dom Kanell), may lack behind a transition at quarterback. Teams will stack eight and nine in the box on Landry. And he'll be in the SEC, which proved its mettle last year and will be better this year. But Landry did it last year with an underachieving team around him. I think he can do it again this year, and make himself a viable candidate.

3. Artrell Pierson, QB, Georgia (Jr). The #1 recruit in the nation this year, Pierson is the centerpiece of a rebuilt offense that lost #1 pick Jared Bingaman along with QB Isaac Allen and WR Erik Hargett. Pierson is that rare speciman that can come in and be The Man, even on a defending national champion. He has that rare air about him, and he's one of two players (Raymont Neubert of PSU being the other) that will make an immediate impact on title contenders as JuCos this year. Pierson has a legit shot at winning the Heisman, if he leads Georgia back to the SEC championship. I don't know if UGA coaches want him doing THAT well, though; I'm not sure they want to replace starting quarterbacks in two consecutive offseasons.

4. Jarmar McCloughan, QB, USC (So). McCloughan being here is part his talent, and part his conference being weak on defense. Nobody in the conference is really capable of stopping USC's pass offense, which should make him the conference's Top Offensive player by default. Add in that he has the ability to tear up any defense, and you have a Heisman candidate. He's capable of throwing for 3,500 yards and 40 TD this season. If he cuts down on the interceptions (he threw nine in 11 games last year), he should be in this conversation late in the season.

5. Torrin McClairen, RB, Texas. Here's a guy that we expect to be the dark hourse candidate. He's filled with talent. Has a burst that nobody in the nation has. But he was stuck behind the nation's top senior, Kelvin Torgeson, last year. This year, it's his team, and I fully expect him to shred the Big XII for monster numbers. He will likely be the nation's top rusher this year, and 25 touchdowns isn't out of the question. He's the nation's best kept secret. The question is, how long will it be before he gets noticed?

6. Deveren Liske, RB, Wisconsin. He's a surprisingly big back (5'10, 227), and can move piles. He's durable, and his running skills are second to none in the nation. I expect him to improve on his numbers from a year ago (1453 yards, 10 TD). He's also going to lead a renaissance in Madison this year, as Wisconsin has built themselves a legit national title contender. The combination of the two forces will make Liske a top contender for the nation's top award.

7. I.M. Dressel, QB, Syracuse. Nobody has more to prove this year than Dressel, who got hurt and disappointed Orange fans with a spotty 2005 campaign. This year, Syracuse is the favorite to win the Big East, and Dressel is the frontrunner for Big East Player of the Year honors. He will also have opportunities against top competition. Syracuse plays at Texas A&M in Week 2, and at USC in Week 4. If Dressel can live up to the hype that was given to him last season, and lead the 'Cuse to the postseason, he's going to be considered. I don't know that he can overcome QBs like Stith, Pierson, or even FSU's Bracy Tolhurst...but I think, if the pieces fall right, he'll be there in the end.

8. Bracy Tolhurst, QB, Florida State (So). The youngest member on this list, Tolhurst has a lot of weapons around him. He has two All-American caliber wideouts, a bruising running back capable of 2,000 yards rushing, and an offensive line that can protect him. Tolhurst also learned behind 2005 Heisman winner Ronde Samuels. The sky is the limit for the young star. He still has some bad habits that can get him in trouble...but if he can correct them, and take his game up a notch, you're looking at moving this kid up more than a few notches on this list.

9. Terrell Tolar, WR, NC State. He's the only wideout on this list, and he's the only wideout capable of winning the award. He's 6'6 with great precision on his routes, and a burst that gets by even the fastest corner. He's aggressive, can outjump anyone in college...simply put, he's the best in college football. If Marshall Greisen can consistently get him the ball, he's very capable of putting up superhuman numbers. That's what it will take for a receiver to win the Heisman...but if any wideout can do it, it's Tolar.

10. Buck Coronado, RB, Boston College. He's the best running back in the ACC, and the leading rusher returning in the conference. He's got incredible soft hands, great speed, and can be a force in the passing game. He has instincts like no other, and his ability to cut back is unparalleled. He's this far down because BC does not figure to be a major player for the postseason, which will hurt his chances. But, on merit alone, he deserves to be higher...maybe even top five. He's not even a notch below the top running backs in the nation.

Honorable mention: Jimond Jensen, RB, OK State; June Grant, RB, Minnesota; Ray Jimoh, RB, Oklahoma; Raymont Neubert, RB, Penn State (Jr); Yo Rizzo, QB, Miami (Jr)

Top Ten Bednarik Candidates

While we see the top Heisman candidates, what about the other side of the ball? Who are the top defensive players in the nation?

1. LaVell Milan, S, NC State. The guy can do it all. He's all over the field, making plays. He's a hard hitter, can cover like a blanket, and can get to the quarterback. There's nothing he's not asked to do, and there's nothing he can't answer. He is the top defensive player in the nation, bar none.

2. Brennan Northcutt, LB, Florida. The premier linebacker in the nation, Northcutt is the top front seven player around. He can go sideline to sideline. He is excellent at getting to the QB, and will be asked to do more of that this year. He's a great thinking player; you never see him take a bad angle, or make a bad read. He's also lightning quick against the run.

3. Brooks Lavelli, DE, Minnesota. Lavelli should lead the nation in sacks, and that will get him in this discussion. He took on double teams last year, and still managed seven sacks for Minnesota's vaunted defense. He'll also get plenty of chances, as many teams on Minnesota's schedule figure to pass the ball plenty.

4. Jamel Prefontaine, CB, Southern California. The best shutdown corner in the nation, Prefontaine is in a league all his own. He's on an island in USC's scheme, and has had to cover some excellent wide receivers. He handcuffed Cal's Qadry Lemons last year in their only meeting. He allows Stacy Bond to pressure the QB an awful lot, and not be worried about offensives throwing over the top.

5. Lake Kotite, DT, Southern California. Here's the guy who's the beneficiary of all of that pressure the Trojans like to put on opposing QBs. Kotite is capable of fifteen sacks, despite being a tackle. He's great at splitting through an offensive line, and getting to the quarterback. He's expected to be a force, and we expect him to be on this list at the end of the year.

6. Ruben Flemons, LB, Kent State. He's all over the place, at all times. He's the most disruptive force in the MAC. I think he'll actually be in this discussion because his stats will be excellent. I'm not sure if he's quite the player that the ones above him are, or the ones a little below him (like Ohio State's Austin Leaverton, for example). But he's capable of putting up some big numbers in a solid conference.

7. Austin Leaverton, LB, Ohio State. He's as good as anyone, and he may be the best linebacker in the nation in pass coverage. His ability to pick up running backs and tight ends is unparalleled. He'll be the biggest name on a big-time defense, and that puts him here.

8. Mason Archuleta, S, Texas A&M. He made his name last season because of his ability to lay in a hit. He also picked up five interceptions. He is seemingly always around the football, and those kind of players are the ones who get on lists like these at the end of the season.

9. JohnDale McFarland, LB, Virginia Tech. He's gotten much better over the offseason, and is now considered one of the best linebackers in the nation. The biggest improvement in his game is his ability to get to the quarterback. He had no sacks a year ago. Now, he could be looking at 10-12 sacks. He is the most improved defensive player in the nation, and he's ready to make it show.

10. Glenn Stanley, CB, Notre Dame. Another shutdown corner in a nation lacking them. Stanley has ideal size (6'2, 203 pounds), runs a 4.38 40, and has incredible agility. He'll also be tested, namely against USC's Shaun Leo. He will have some of the greatest battles any corner will see all year. It will be a joy to watch him go.

Honorable mention: Vinny Anderson, LB, Penn State; Philip Bly, S, USC; Reno Gillespie, S, FSU; Glenn Voigt, LB, Aire Force

Conference Top Three

ACC
Offensive Player of the Year: Bracy Tolhurst, QB, FSU
Defensive Player of the Year: LaVell Milan, FS, NC State
Rookie of the Year: Roberto Naeloe, CB, Virginia Tech
Rising: Miami
Falling: Virginia
Biggest shoes to fill: Kurt Laird, QB, Clemson
Most Underrated: Calvin Torrey, QB, Virginia
Most Overrated: Raonall Gibbons, RB, NC State
Best player you've never heard of: Jacques Bird, LB, North Carolina
Top Pro Prospect: Terrell Tolar, WR, NC State

1. Florida State: More weapons than anyone else.
2. Clemson: Life after Laird isn't so bad.
3. Miami: Yo! Rizzo, Canes get back on track.

Atlantic Division Winner: Florida State
Coastal Division Winner: Miami
ACC Champion: Florida State

Big East
Offensive Player of the Year: IM Dressel, QB, Syracuse
Defensive Player of the Year: Abdul-Salam Faneca, FS, Syracuse
Rookie of the Year: D'Wayne Flowers, SS, West Virginia
Rising: UConn
Falling: Louisville
Biggest shoes to fill: Donovin Pospisil, QB, West Virginia
Most Underrated: Kenyon Kadela, LB, Syracuse
Most Overrated: Eddie Scifres, RB, Louisville
Best player you've never heard of: Chon Kreider, QB, Pittsburgh
Top Pro Prospect: IM Dressel, QB, Syracuse

1. Syracuse: Dressel is the key in the Carrier Dome.
2. Pittsburgh: Can their offense make up for their spotty D?
3. West Virginia: Dropoff after the top two is steep.

Big Ten
Offensive Player of the Year: Sage Stith, QB, Penn State
Defensive Player of the Year: Austin Leaverton, LB, Ohio State
Rookie of the Year: Raymont Neubert, RB, Penn State
Rising: Wisconsin
Falling: Minnesota
Biggest shoes to fill: Art Webb, QB, Minnesota
Most Underrated: Sammy Banducci, WR, Iowa
Most Overrated: Rae Hendrickson, RB, Michigan
Best player you've never heard of: Deveren Liske, RB, Wisconsin
Top Pro Prospect: Sage Stith, QB, Penn State

1. Ohio State: Ridiculously talented. Seriously.
2. Penn State: Watch out...this team is extremely dangerous, on both ends of the ball.
3. Michigan: Inexperienced secondary could really hurt this team.

Big XII
Offensive Player of the Year: Torrin McClairen, RB, Texas
Defensive Player of the Year: Mason Archuleta, FS, Texas A&M
Rookie of the Year: Gordon Rone, WR, Nebraska
Rising: Colorado
Falling: Texas A&M
Biggest shoes to fill: Marion Songin, RB, Texas A&M
Most Underrated: Cyril Ryan, DE, Texas Tech
Most Overrated: Wray Diedrick, WR, Colorado
Best player you've never heard of: Qadry Hines, WR, Kansas State
Top Pro Prospect: Jimond Jensen, RB, Oklahoma State

1. Oklahoma: Sooners want to rebound after upset in Big XII Championship.
2. Texas: Can all the new parts fit the puzzle?
3. Colorado: Buffs should own the North behind QB Cannady, RB Gilmore.

North Division Winner: Colorado
South Division Winner: Oklahoma
Big XII Champion: Oklahoma

C-USA
Offensive Player of the Year: Ramon Shipp, RB, UTEP
Defensive Player of the Year: Herkie Kilmer, LB, UTEP
Rookie of the Year: Woody DeLong, RB, Marshall
Rising: UTEP
Falling: Southern Miss
Biggest shoes to fill: Duke Parks, RB, Marshall
Most Underrated: Alan Stanley, LB, Marshall
Most Overrated: Reyna Pugh, QB, UAB
Best player you've never heard of: Y.A. Ford, WR, Southern Miss
Top Pro Prospect: Y.A. Ford, WR, Southern Miss

1. Marshall: If DeLamielleure is solid, Herd goes to the playoffs.
2. Central Florida: Not flashy, no stars...they just get the job done.
3. UTEP: Arguably the best defense in the conference.

East Division Winner: Marshall
West Division Winner: UTEP
C-USA Champion: Marshall

MAC
Offensive Player of the Year: Clay Teresa, RB, Toledo
Defensive Player of the Year: Ruben Flemons, LB, Kent State
Rookie of the Year: Quinton Diggs, WR, Northern Illinois
Rising: Kent State
Falling: Miami (OH)
Biggest shoes to fill: Curtis Gault, T, Miami (OH)
Most Underrated: MarTay Paple, CB, Buffalo
Most Overrated: Ki-Jana Gbaja-Biamilia, QB, Buffalo
Best player you've never heard of: Ruben Flemons, LB, Kent State
Top Pro Prospect: Ruben Flemons, LB, Kent State

1. Toledo: ...as long as RB Clay Teresa stays healthy (and eligible)...
2. Kent State: Can Ruben Flemons play offense, too? KSU fans will be asking...
3. Northern Illinois: Very likely ranked too low, though their offense is too inconsistent.

East Division Winner: Toledo
West Division WInner: Kent State
MAC Champion: Toledo

MWAC
Offensive Player of the Year: Jimond McIlhenny, RB, Colorado State
Defensive Player of the Year: Glenn Voigt, LB, Air Force
Rookie of the Year: Tron Tafoya, RB, UNLV
Rising: San Diego State
Falling: Air Force
Biggest shoes to fill: Dobie Sanderson, LB, New Mexico
Most Underrated: Dokie Gash, QB, Air Force
Most Overrated: Carey McCoy, RB, BYU
Best player you've never heard of: Arnie Turntine, QB, UNLV
Top Pro Prospect: Dokie Gash, QB, Air Force

1. Colorado State: Return the nucleus from last year's solid showing.
2. San Diego State: Call it a hunch, but I think they'll sneak up on people.
3. Air Force: Will be tougher to repeat, though Gash is a big asset.

Pac-10
Offensive Player of the Year: Jarmar McCloughan, QB, USC
Defensive Player of the Year: Jamel Prefontaine, CB, USC
Rookie of the Year: Cris Henley, WR, California
Rising: Washington State
Falling: Arizona
Biggest shoes to fill: LeRoy Keithley, RB, Oregon State
Most Underrated: Andrew Minardi, RB, California
Most Overrated: Tory Wheelwright, SS, Arizona State
Best player you've never heard of: Kavika Romanik, QB, California
Top Pro Prospect: Philip Bly, S, USC

1. Southern California: The young Trojans have experience, ready to rule the west.
2. Oregon State: Scott Wasner has to make the secondary work to contend.
3. Washington State: This year's USC...they're a year away.

SEC
Offensive Player of the Year: Artrell Pierson, QB, Georgia
Defensive Player of the Year: Brennan Northcutt, LB, Florida
Rookie of the Year: Artrell Pierson, QB, Georgia
Rising: LSU
Falling: Alabama
Biggest shoes to fill: Jared Bingaman, RB, Georgia
Most Underrated: Van Macklin, LB, Auburn
Most Overrated: Jammi Carruth, RB, Ole Miss
Best player you've never heard of: Winslow Ferrario, RB, Florida
Top Pro Prospect: London Standlee, TE, Alabama (he gets the nod because he's going to change the way pro football looks at tight ends)

1. Georgia: The Bulldogs, being Pierson, just reloaded for another title run.
2. Auburn: They are deep, they are talented, and they are ready for the big time.
3. LSU: The Tigers are ready to rebound from a lackluster '05.

Sun Belt
Offensive Player of the Year: MacArthur Aikman, WR, Troy
Defensive Player of the Year: Jay Means, CB, Florida International
Rookie of the Year: Kamil Metzelaars, OG, Mid TN State
Rising: Arkansas State
Falling: none
Biggest shoes to fill: Dimitrius LeJeune, LB, FAU
Most Underrated: Lenny Ditka, LB, Mid TN State
Most Overrated: Gibran Tomlinson, RB, Louisiana-Lafayette
Best player you've never heard of: MacArthur Aikman, WR, Troy
Top Pro Prospect: MacArthur Aikman, WR, Troy

1. Troy: Should get to playoffs again...if someone can throw to Aikman.
2. Arkansas State: Tough team with no standouts.
3. Middle Tennessee State: Not all that talented, but they somehow get the job done.

WAC
Offensive Player of the Year: Monsanto Westbrooks, QB, Fresno State
Defensive Player of the Year: Buck Cipa, FS, Utah State
Rookie of the Year: Yo Binn, OT, Hawaii
Rising: Fresno State
Falling: Nevada
Biggest shoes to fill: Deems Talley, OT, Boise State
Most Underrated: Will Freeman, CB, New Mexico State
Most Overrated: Orson Shehee, QB, Boise State
Best player you've never heard of: KJ Olszewski, FS, Fresno State
Top Pro Prospect: Monsanto Westbrooks, QB, Fresno State

1. Fresno State: The Bulldogs are geared up for more than just the conference title.
2. Boise State: Can the Broncos win without most of their offense?
3. Hawaii: QB Jashon Lemmerman will keep them competitive.

Independents
Offensive Player of the Year: Damian Bland, QB, Notre Dame
Defensive Player of the Year: Glenn Stanley, CB, Notre Dame
Rookie of the Year: Bret Baniewicz, RB, Notre Dame
Rising: Notre Dame
Falling: Army
Biggest shoes to fill: Simeon Hines, QB, Navy
Most Underrated: Isiah Paxton, DE, Navy
Most Overrated: Ty Sellers, RB, Notre Dame
Best player you've never heard of: Devon Aldridge, WR, Notre Dame
Top Pro Prospect: Glenn Stanley, CB, Notre Dame

1. Notre Dame: Should be a cakewalk this season.
2. Navy: They have somewhat of a defense.
3. Army: They aren't Temple.

Playoff Picks

So, here's what we have, in terms of the playoff picture

Florida State (ACC)
Syracuse (Big East)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Oklahoma (Big XII)
Marshall (CUSA)
Toledo (MAC)
Colorado State (MWAC)
Southern California (Pac-10)
Georgia (SEC)
Troy (SUN)
Fresno State (WAC)

So, there's five spots left. Here are our picks for the final playoff spots:

1. Notre Dame (INDY)
2. Miami (ACC)
3. Penn State (Big Ten)
4. Texas (Big XII)
5. LSU (SEC)

When it's all said and done, here's my Final Four.

USC vs Penn State
Notre Dame vs Georgia

I think Georgia will get back to the title game, to be opposed by USC. Penn State and Notre Dame, I think, are the wild cards in the playoffs...they're both capable of mucking things up for Oklahoma, Ohio State, Texas, and Florida State. But, I think USC and Georgia are the cream of the crop, and they'll make it to the season's final game. In the end, I think Southern Cal, this time helped by a competitive conference, is too talented for the Bulldogs to match up with. Artrell Pierson is good enough to get Georgia back to the title game, but I don't think he's good enough to win it. Chalk it up to Jamar McCloughan, Shaun Leo, Lake Kotite, Jamel Prefontaine, Philip Bly, and the Trojan coaching staff. They began their ascent to this spot last year, when they rallied to win the Pac 10, then got to the semifinals. I think this is the start of a dynasty in Pasadena for the Men of Troy.

Your 2006 National Champion: Southern California

Joe Simpson's Preseason Top 25

Just so this is out there, here is my Preseason Top 25. I will go into this in a little more detail in the 2006 Preseason Special, to be released shortly.

2006 Preseason Top 25

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Florida State
4. USC
5. Auburn
6. Oklahoma
7. Penn State
8. Michigan
9. Texas
10. LSU
11. Florida
12. Syracuse
13. Clemson
14. Oregon State
15. Colorado
16. Boston College
17. Notre Dame
18. Pittsburgh
19. Wisconsin
20. Miami
21. Washington State
22. Colorado State
23. Fresno State
24. Maryland
25. Minnesota